In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of trading volume and breadth of available contracts. Kalshi offers the sole CFTC-authorised pathway for American participants. Manifold excels as a play-money environment for casual forecasters and entertainment-focused prediction. Across Europe and beyond, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram represents the optimal choice.
Prediction markets have surged dramatically throughout 2024 and into 2025. This guide examines how the principal venues stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | Over $1.5B in annual trading activity. Most substantial order books across political and digital asset categories |
| Markets | Exceeds 1,000 concurrent contracts. Spans governance, blockchain assets, athletics, research, entertainment |
| Fees | No platform take. Bid-ask spreads range from 1-3 cents typically |
| Currency | USDC denominated on Polygon blockchain (digital wallet needed) |
| Access | Worldwide availability excluding United States. Identity verification mandatory |
| Best for | Professional forecasters and those leveraging analytical advantages |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi stands as the sole CFTC-authorised prediction venue operating within United States jurisdiction. It provides access to American residents who face restrictions on competing platforms and continues expanding its user base. Trade-offs include: narrower selection of available contracts relative to Polymarket versus alternatives, and regulatory constraints that preclude certain categories of predictions.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using virtual currency ("mana") instead of actual funds. This makes it an excellent resource for developing forecasting skills and participating in collective intelligence exercises — though unsuitable for those seeking monetary returns. The ecosystem hosts more than 10,000 user-generated prediction contracts.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus functions as an aggregator of forecasts contributed by professional and amateur predictors. While no monetary stakes are involved, the platform excels at establishing prediction credentials and addressing complex geopolitical questions. Academic institutions regularly reference Metaculus data when studying forecast calibration.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair represents the established betting exchange model, processing enormous sums across athletic and electoral prediction contracts annually. Strengths include: traditional currency settlement, FCA oversight, robust sports-betting liquidity. Limitations: 2-5% commission structure on net gains, absence of blockchain-based markets, comparatively limited election prediction depth versus platform overview alternatives.
Our Recommendation for 2025
If you're based outside the United States and seek maximum trading depth alongside comprehensive market selection: Polymarket via PolyGram delivers the optimal solution. PolyGram streamlines blockchain interactions whilst preserving complete access to Polymarket's underlying liquidity pools. Start trading on PolyGram →