In this guide
Key takeaway: Polymarket is a decentralised prediction market where traders buy YES/NO shares on real-world events using USDC on the Polygon blockchain. Smart contracts handle all settlements automatically.
How does Polymarket work? Fundamentally, Polymarket functions as a prediction marketplace: rather than wagering against a bookmaker's built-in edge, you exchange positions with other participants who hold opposing views. The market price continuously evolves to reflect participants' aggregate probability assessment — shifting instantly as fresh information emerges.
The basics: prediction markets
In a prediction market, you acquire shares representing possible outcomes. Each share yields $1 upon YES resolution, or $0 upon NO resolution. Purchasing a YES share at 40 cents ($0.40) signals your belief that the event has a 40% likelihood. Success doubles your investment; failure forfeits your capital.
Polymarket differs from conventional bookmakers by eliminating the house edge (the "vig"). Market prices emerge solely from the interplay of buyer and seller demand.
How Polymarket uses blockchain
Polymarket operates atop the Polygon blockchain (an Ethereum layer-2 solution). This architecture delivers:
- Complete on-chain transparency and auditability of all activity
- Automated execution of fund management, order matching, and settlement via smart contracts
- Immunity from platform-level fund seizure or result tampering by operators
- Near-instantaneous resolution rather than multi-day clearing cycles
USDC: the currency of Polymarket
Polymarket exclusively employs USDC (USD Coin), a stablecoin maintaining a 1:1 peg with the US dollar. Your account balance remains insulated from cryptocurrency price swings — one USDC perpetually equals one dollar.
How markets resolve
Upon event conclusion, Polymarket leverages the UMA Oracle (Universal Market Access) for market settlement. An appointed "proposer" reports the result; a 2-hour challenge period follows; absent objection, settlement becomes binding. Contested outcomes proceed to UMA token-holder arbitration — a community-governed dispute mechanism.
Getting started on Polymarket
- Create an account — register via email and complete identity verification requirements
- Deposit USDC — fund through MoonPay, direct bank transfer, or transfer from your existing crypto holdings
- Browse markets — explore offerings across politics, athletics, blockchain, entertainment and beyond
- Buy shares — select YES or NO and specify your investment amount
- Track and exit — liquidate your holdings whenever you choose prior to final settlement
PolyGram streamlines this workflow with an intuitive mobile experience and passwordless email authentication. Start trading on PolyGram →
Why Polymarket prices are accurate
Prediction markets have repeatedly demonstrated superior forecasting performance relative to conventional polling and specialist commentary. Throughout the 2024 US election cycle, Polymarket's probability assessments surpassed accuracy levels of major polling organisations. The mechanism: financial incentives compel participants to make unbiased judgements.