Next Claude Opus released by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Anthropic’s next Claude Opus model must be publicly launched before the end of 2026 to settle this market as “Yes”. The current 95% implied probability reflects confidence that a point-bump Opus refresh will follow the restoration of suspended Mythos-class models, as outlined in Anthropic’s June 2026 roadmap [3]. The last confirmed Opus release was Claude Opus 4.8 on 28 May 2026, available immediately via API and all Claude products [1][2].

Historically, Anthropic has delivered Opus refreshes roughly every two to three months, with Opus 4.7 launching in early 2026 and Opus 4.8 following in May [2][4]. The 95% crowd-implied odds align with this cadence, assuming no further export-control disruptions. On Polymarket, this would appear as 19.0 decimal odds (5% no), whereas Kalshi, Betfair, and Smarkets typically quote implied probabilities directly; fee structures and KYC requirements also diverge, with Polymarket often requiring less identity verification than US-regulated books.

Traders should monitor announcements regarding the reinstatement of Fable 5 and Mythos 5, which Anthropic flagged as prerequisites for the next Opus variant [3]. A safeguarded general release of Mythos-class models is expected to precede the Opus point-bump. Any delay in export-control clearance or a shift in Anthropic’s roadmap toward a non-Opus model like Sonnet 5 would materially reduce the probability, though no such pivot is currently confirmed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page compares Next Claude Opus released by 2026? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.