OpenAI’s Astra released by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

OpenAI’s Astra is still an unreleased internal model, so the market is really asking whether a public launch lands by 31 October and under what name. The current 4% crowd price implies traders think a near-term release is unlikely, and that is broadly consistent with the absence of any official date, model card, API endpoint or pricing page so far.[2][4][11]

Historical analogues suggest this type of market can stay low until OpenAI makes a formal product announcement, then reprice quickly if the company confirms public access. Recent reporting says Astra was first disclosed on 1 August 2026 and may be subject to a roughly 30-day pre-release review, which would put the earliest plausible window into September, but that timing remains inference rather than guidance from OpenAI.[1][2] For platform comparison, Polymarket-style pricing is shown as an implied probability, while Kalshi lists contract odds around dated thresholds; here Kalshi’s published levels already put a materially higher chance on a release before 1 October than the 4% headline would suggest, although the exact contract structure and fees differ by venue.[7][15]

Catalysts are straightforward: any OpenAI post naming Astra, any ChatGPT product update, or any evidence that the model has entered public testing would force the price higher. Traders should also watch for confirmation that the federal review clock has started, since several reports tie release timing to that process, and for any sign that OpenAI chooses a different commercial name such as GPT-5.7 or GPT-6 instead of Astra.[1][14][16] On Betfair or Smarkets, liquidity and KYC access may be narrower than on Polymarket or Kalshi, so small headlines can move decimal odds sharply even when the underlying probability has not changed much.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares OpenAI’s Astra released by…? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.