When will GPT-5.6 be released?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

OpenAI is preparing to release GPT-5.6 this month, with multiple sources indicating a late-June launch window that would mark a meaningful improvement over the April-released GPT-5.5. The company appears to be adhering to a roughly six-week cadence between flagship models, following GPT-5.4 in March and GPT-5.5 in April, while the new model targets a 1.5M-token context window and enhanced agentic workflow reliability [1][3].

Historical precedent suggests that 0% crowd-implied probability on this market is likely a misreading of community signals; Polymarket has priced the June 22–28 window at 83–89% probability, with a canary release already visible in OpenAI’s Codex backend logs before any official announcement [1][3]. This divergence highlights how platforms differ: Polymarket uses decimal odds reflecting implied probability directly, whereas Kalshi and Betfair often quote decimal odds or fractional prices with distinct fee structures and KYC requirements, creating varying liquidity and signal strength for the same event.

Traders should monitor OpenAI’s official release notes, the appearance of a system card, and Codex backend updates for version bumps, as these typically coincide with public availability [3]. Recent leaks from The Information confirm chief scientist Jakub Pachocki described the model as a “meaningful improvement,” with efficiency and safety gains alongside faster speeds [1]. If the June 30 release date holds, there are six weeks of pre-launch activity to track, though markets have frequently misjudged model release dates despite strong community consensus [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares When will GPT-5.6 be released? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.