Bitcoin price on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin’s noon ET Binance candle on 4 August is the key fixing for this market, so the relevant question is where BTC/USDT prints at that exact minute rather than where spot trades for the rest of the day. With the crowd-implied probability at 0% YES, the book is pricing in an outcome outside the listed YES brackets, which makes the market behave more like a tail-price dispute than a normal directional call.

The closest comparison is the recent band of Bitcoin trading around the low-to-mid $60,000s: one live market tracker has this event framed against a 62,000–64,000 range, while recent historical data show BTC closing near $63,136 on 2 August and around $63,088 on 4 July. [1][4][13] That context matters because minute-candle outcomes can differ from headline spot quotes, and the settlement rule here uses Binance’s 1-minute close, not a broad daily average. On Kalshi-style markets, the same view is usually expressed as an implied probability, while Betfair and Smarkets translate the view into decimal odds and apply exchange fees differently; those differences can make a seemingly identical price band look more or less attractive depending on the venue. Robinhood Prediction Markets also sit inside a US KYC perimeter, whereas offshore crypto books and broader exchanges can vary more widely in access and pricing format.

Catalysts for the fixing are mostly mechanical rather than narrative: BTC typically reacts to ETF flow headlines, macro data, and any intraday leverage unwind, but the decisive factor here is whether those moves persist into the noon ET candle on Binance. Recent reporting has described Bitcoin as range-bound in the mid-$60,000s, with technical levels around $60,965 and $65,000–$70,000 treated as important thresholds by market commentators. [12][16] If BTC stays inside that band into settlement, the crowd’s 0% YES may simply reflect that the market has not found a bracketed path on this particular exchange and timestamp.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Bitcoin price on August 4? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.