How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Reserve has maintained its benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75% throughout 2026, with no cuts made so far despite earlier expectations. The crowd-implied 80% probability that at least one 25-basis-point cut will occur in 2026 now stands in sharp contrast to the median Fed participant’s dot plot, which suggests only a single cut is likely—and possibly not until late in the year[1]. Historical precedent from 2025, when three 25-bps cuts occurred in September, October, and December, frames this optimism, yet current inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions have shifted the policy stance toward caution[1]. J.P. Morgan Global Research even forecasts no cuts in 2026, projecting a rate hike instead in September 2027[3], while a Reuters poll shows nearly 70% of economists expect the rate to remain unchanged for the rest of the year[5].

Traders should monitor upcoming FOMC meetings, inflation data releases, and the appointment of the new Fed Chair, as leadership changes often catalyse policy shifts[2]. The March meeting already priced in a 100% chance of no rate change, reinforcing the pause[1]. A recent Reuters report from June 9 confirms that cut calls are fading as war-related inflation persists, with futures markets now pricing in at least one rate increase by year-end[5]. On platform comparison, Polymarket displays this market as 80% implied probability with low fees and no KYC, whereas Kalshi lists it as decimal odds (roughly 4.00) with stricter KYC and higher transaction costs, creating divergent liquidity profiles for institutional versus retail participants. Betfair and Smarkets similarly offer decimal odds but with varying fee tiers and regional access restrictions, affecting how the same 80% probability is interpreted across venues.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.