What price will Bitcoin hit on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's price trajectory on 13 August 2026 remains uncertain, with the current 0% implied probability across major platforms reflecting either extreme confidence in a specific price band or sparse liquidity in this particular settlement window. The settlement deadline of 14 August 04:00 UTC creates a narrow observation window, making this contract sensitive to intraday volatility rather than sustained directional moves. Polymarket's decimal odds format and Kalshi's binary structure will diverge sharply on how traders express conviction here; Kalshi's US-domiciled KYC requirements may limit participation compared to Smarkets' broader European access, whilst Betfair's commission-based model (typically 2–5%) differs materially from Polymarket's 2% flat fee on both sides, affecting break-even thresholds for range traders.

Historical Bitcoin price movements show daily swings of 3–8% are routine during periods of elevated volatility, yet the 0% probability suggests either the market has collapsed into a single price point or traders have abandoned the contract due to illiquidity. Comparable August settlement windows in prior years have seen modest trading activity unless tied to Federal Reserve announcements or major cryptocurrency exchange developments. Traders should monitor mid-August regulatory filings, spot ETF rebalancing schedules, and any macroeconomic data releases scheduled between 10–13 August that could shift risk appetite. Recent volatility clustering in crypto markets (as tracked by major indices through July 2026) will inform whether this contract attracts fresh capital or remains dormant until the final 48 hours.

Methodology

This page compares What price will Bitcoin hit on August 13? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.