What price will Bitcoin hit on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin’s August price level is being judged against a market that already centres on the mid-$60,000s, not on a fresh break into higher territory. Polymarket currently puts the $64,000–$66,000 band at 88%, while its next bracket, $66,000–$68,000, sits at 9%; that is a very different framing from Robinhood-style threshold contracts, where the listed choices are discrete “at or above” strikes and the page for this event shows $55,300, $59,300 and $64,000 thresholds each priced at 99¢[7][5]. On that basis, the crowd-implied 0% YES here reads less like a view that Bitcoin cannot rise and more like a sign that the contract’s exact settlement condition is not being priced through on the available ladder. Forecast sites are broadly clustered around the same area: CoinCodex points to about $65,614 for 10 August, Changelly to roughly $65,220, and MEXC to about $65,267[1][2][4].

For traders comparing Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets, the main practical difference is how the same view is expressed and charged. Polymarket and Kalshi quote direct probabilities on event outcomes, while Betfair and Smarkets usually translate the same view into decimal odds, with the effective probability adjusted for commission and spread; that makes the apparent “price” on one venue look different even when the underlying view is similar. KYC reach also varies: exchange-style books such as Kalshi are generally more restrictive by jurisdiction, while crypto-native venues can be easier to access but may carry different funding and withdrawal frictions. The near-term catalysts are ordinary but important: Bitcoin’s path into the settlement window will mainly be driven by ETF flow data, macro prints and any abrupt move in dollar liquidity, with some August commentary already flagging “post-Fed positioning” and “ETF flow watch” as the key short-horizon drivers[15][13].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares What price will Bitcoin hit on August 10? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.