Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
71% | 29% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
71% | 29% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 71% |
| Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Nemiga (+1.5) | 60% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs Nemiga (+3.5) | 59% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs Nemiga (+3.5) | 51% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs Nemiga (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 48% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 43% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 40% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 35% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-6.5) vs Nemiga (+6.5) | 35% |
| Map 1 Winner | 28% |
| Map 2 Winner | 21% |
| Match Winner | 16% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 71% probability to counter-strike: nemiga vs g2 (bo3) - blast bounty qualifier. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 32 match between Nemiga and G2 in the BLAST Bounty Qualifier, initially scheduled for July 22 at 8:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nemiga" if N…
Methodology
This page compares Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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