Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: WW (-1.5) vs TDK (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs WW Team (+3.5) | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs WW Team (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs WW Team (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs WW Team (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-6.5) vs WW Team (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: WW Team (-3.5) vs TDK (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-6.5) vs WW Team (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 0% |
Market context
WW Team meet TDK in a best-of-three CIS LAN Championship playoff semi-final, with the market set to resolve on the match winner unless the fixture is not completed, is cancelled, or drifts beyond the settlement rules. The crowd price of 100% for a WW Team win is best read as a thin-liquidity signal rather than a rounded bookmaker line, because on Polymarket the market is quoted as a direct implied probability, while Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets usually present decimal or fractional-style odds and then apply different fee models on top; access also differs, as Betfair and Smarkets are more tightly tied to local KYC and jurisdictional checks than prediction-market venues.
The main historical clue is that the teams have already met in CIS LAN play this year, with WW Team beating TDK 2-0 in March and TDK later losing another CIS LAN playoff series to 1WIN 2-0 in April, which gives some context for why a one-sided price might appear even in a semi-final. The more recent tournament pages also place both sides in the same CIS LAN Championship #6 bracket, and show WW Team active in group play earlier in the event, so traders should treat the 100% reading as a statement about current market positioning, not a guarantee that the result is already known.
For catalysts, the key checks are the official match start, any bracket reseeding, and whether either team withdraws or forfeits, since those outcomes can change resolution away from a normal win or loss. The published schedules disagree slightly on exact start times — one listing shows 09:00 UTC and another 13:00 UTC for the same semi-final — so delayed server launch, admin rescheduling, or a start-time correction are the practical risks to monitor before expiry. If the game is played and finished within the window, the market should settle normally; if it is abandoned or pushed outside the seven-day rule, resolution can fall to 50-50 under the market terms.
Methodology
This page compares Counter-Strike: WW Team vs TDK (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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