Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game Handicap: Z10 (-1.5) vs PuckChamp (+1.5) | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 1% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 1% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
Market context
PuckChamp and Zero Tenacity are due to meet in a best-of-three Dota 2 group-stage match at EPL Masters Group B, with the market resolving to the named winner if the series is completed and to 50-50 only if it is not played, tied, or left undecided beyond the settlement window. Match listings place the start at 09:00 UTC, while the market description pegs the original schedule at 5:00AM ET, so traders should watch for any broadcast-time drift rather than assuming a hard local kickoff. [1][2][4]
The cleanest historical read comes from prior PuckChamp-Zero Tenacity meetings and the surrounding group-stage form: Offstage reported Zero Tenacity beat PuckChamp 2-0 in EPL Masters I, and DLTV’s match page shows that result on the same day as a best-of-three with both teams carrying mid-range recent win rates. That kind of head-to-head history matters more here than the crowd vote alone, because a 0% YES price on a Polymarket-style contract may reflect thin liquidity or stale positioning, whereas Betfair, Smarkets, or Kalshi-style venues would usually express the same view through decimal odds, not direct probability, and their displayed price can move differently once fees and commission are included. [5][11]
Catalysts are mostly operational: confirm whether the series actually starts on time, whether the group schedule holds, and whether any upstream postponement affects the settlement clock. Offstage’s EPL Masters preview shows the tournament is running on a fixed group schedule with streamed slots, so a late change to the match order, a server issue, or a no-contest can matter more than pre-match form for settlement. For comparison across books, Polymarket’s implied probability is directly readable, while Betfair and Smarkets require conversion from decimal odds and then adjustment for commission, and Kalshi’s KYC reach is generally narrower than open crypto-native access, so price gaps may reflect access and fee frictions as much as match opinion. [10][1][2]
Methodology
We read Dota 2: PuckChamp vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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