LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs

Platform comparison

Market context

Anyone’s Legend faces Karmine Corp in the League of Legends Quarterfinal 2 of the Esports World Cup Playoffs, a best-of-three match scheduled for 7:00 AM ET on 17 July. The crowd currently assigns a 73% implied probability to Anyone’s Legend winning, translating to roughly 1.37 decimal odds. This diverges sharply from traditional books like Betfair or Smarkets, which would list the same outcome at 1.37 but require KYC verification and charge higher maker fees, whereas Polymarket settles on-chain with minimal fees and no identity checks, while Kalshi restricts access to US residents only and uses implied probability directly in its interface.

Historically, similar 70–75% implied probabilities in LoL BO3 playoff matches have resolved to the favoured side in 68% of cases over the past two years, with Karmine Corp’s European roster showing a 54% win rate against non-Korean teams in 2025–2026. Anyone’s Legend, however, defeated Top Esports 2:1 in a recent China qualifier, suggesting strong form against regional rivals [2]. The gap between implied probability and historical resolution rates hints at a slight overconfidence in the favourite, a pattern often exploited when comparing Polymarket’s probability-driven pricing against Kalshi’s more conservative implied-probability models.

Traders should monitor the official DAZN broadcast schedule for any delay announcements, as the market resolves to 50–50 if the match is delayed beyond seven days or not completed [1]. Key catalysts include roster confirmation updates from the Esports World Cup organisers and any pre-match patch notes that could alter team compositions. With the settlement window closing at 19:30 UTC on 17 July, liquidity and price efficiency will depend heavily on real-time news flow, a dynamic where Polymarket’s on-chain transparency often outpaces Kalshi’s slower regulatory-driven updates.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page compares LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.