Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| First Blood in Game 1? | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% |
Market context
Ici Japon Corp. Esport are scheduled to play Skillcamp Esport in a one-game LFL regular-season match, with the current contract already reflecting a completed result rather than a live pre-match price. On Robinhood Prediction Markets, the event is shown as live and settled around a 54¢/47¢ split for Skillcamp and Ici Japon respectively, while Kalshi displays the same fixture as roughly 53% Skillcamp / 47% Ici Japon and explicitly quotes cents alongside probability, making the same view look slightly different depending on whether the venue foregrounds price or implied chance.[12][18]
The historical frame is straightforward: these sides met earlier in 2026, and Ici Japon won that best-of-one 1–0, which is the clearest comparable result available in the sources.[1][4][5][11] Strafe and BO3.gg also point to Ici Japon as the stronger side in this pairing, with Strafe reporting 100% of user votes for Ici Japon and BO3.gg publishing an Ici Japon 1:0 forecast, so a near-even or slightly favoured Skillcamp price on a market screen would need a specific reason beyond head-to-head history to be justified.[2][7][8] On prediction venues, the practical distinction is that Polymarket-style markets express the view as a simple probability, while book-style interfaces such as Kalshi and Betfair-style pricing translate that into cents or decimal odds after fees and spread, which can make the same underlying belief look tighter or looser across platforms.[12][18]
For traders, the key catalysts are whether the match is officially recorded as played, whether the result is confirmed within the settlement window, and whether any schedule change pushes it beyond the seven-day delay rule that would force a 50–50 resolution under the contract terms.[12] The listed start time is 4:00 PM UTC on 4 August, but the market’s own timestamp and the settlement window mean the decisive issue is not the planned kick-off alone; it is whether a winner is logged on the official match feed before the deadline.[2][3][16] Because LFL fixtures can move on short notice, the main watchpoints are the tournament schedule, the live score provider, and any official postponement notice, rather than roster gossip or pre-match sentiment.
Methodology
We read LoL: Ici Japon Corp. Esport vs Skillcamp Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Season from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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