Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
73% | 27% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
73% | 27% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 3.5 Games | 73% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 61% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 61% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 57% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 55% |
| Map 1 Winner | 54% |
| Map 4 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 54% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 53% |
| Map 3 Winner | 52% |
| Match Winner | 52% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 52% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 52% |
| Map 2 Winner | 51% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 4 Winner | 48% |
| Map 5 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 48% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 41% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 39% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 37% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 37% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 37% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 37% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 35% |
| Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) | 31% |
| Map Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 14% |
Market context
The Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs prediction market currently prices this outcome at 73% YES. This market refers to the Valorant Grand final match between Karmine Corp and Team Liquid in the VCT EMEA Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to…
Methodology
We read Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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