Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup match between Türkiye and the United States, set for 25 June 2026 at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, pits an already-eliminated Turkish side against a US team seeking a third consecutive win. The US men’s national team has dominated the recent head-to-head record, winning the last two encounters and holding a 2W-1L-1D advantage overall since 1991, with six goals scored to Turkey’s five [3][4]. This historical asymmetry frames the current 5% implied probability for an exact score outcome, suggesting markets view a specific result as highly unlikely compared to broader outcomes like a draw or US win, which Flashscore analysts deem more probable given Pochettino’s likely rotation [2].

Traders should monitor pre-match announcements regarding US squad rotation, as coach Pochettino is expected to rest key players after two straight wins, potentially altering the match’s intensity and goal-scoring dynamics [2]. The US has already secured their group, reducing competitive pressure, while Turkey remains desperate for a result, a factor that may increase defensive caution and lower the likelihood of an exact score [2]. For platform comparison, Polymarket displays decimal odds (e.g., +150 for US win) while Kalshi and Betfair emphasise implied probabilities and fee structures that vary significantly; Kalshi’s KYC requirements are stricter than Polymarket’s, and Betfair’s commission model differs from Smarkets’ zero-commission approach, affecting net returns on this specific market [1][2]. These divergences in odds presentation and fee structures mean traders must calculate true value carefully across platforms.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.