Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market refers to the Lower bracket final in The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs, where 4 Anchors and Ilmeria faced the bug in a Best of 3 match originally scheduled for 4:00 PM ET on 26 June. The contest has already concluded, with 4 Anchors and Ilmeria winning decisively 2–0, a result verified by multiple esports score trackers and confirmed by Gamers World [2][3].

Historical precedents in regional qualifiers show that lower-bracket teams often outperform their initial crowd-implied probabilities when facing opponents with weaker world rankings; here, 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (ranked 41) defeated the bug (ranked 48) without losing a map, aligning with Strafe Esports’ user prediction of a 72.3% win probability for the former [2][3]. This divergence between the 50% market price and the actual outcome mirrors past cases where live betting platforms like Kalshi and Betfair adjusted odds rapidly post-match, whereas static prediction markets with delayed settlement often retain pre-event pricing until resolution [1][4].

Traders should monitor official tournament announcements for any post-match disputes or disqualifications, though no such issues have arisen. The settlement window closes on 27 June 2026 at 02:00 UTC, and platforms diverge significantly in execution: Polymarket and Kalshi use decimal odds with KYC requirements, while Betfair and Smarkets operate on implied probability with lower fees and broader global access [1][4]. For this specific market, the outcome is already verified, making fee structures and settlement speed the primary variables for comparison across platforms.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.