Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hamas would need to make a public, official commitment to give up or dismantle its military presence in Gaza for this market to pay out **Yes**, and the current 0% crowd price reflects how far that outcome remains from the group’s stated position. Reuters reported in April that Hamas told mediators it would not even discuss disarmament without guarantees of a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, while BBC and other outlets later reported the same conditional line: no talks on weapons without first phase commitments being met, and no move without a wider political track[1][2][11].

That framing is consistent with the recent record. In April, Hamas was reported to have formally رفضed a phased disarmament plan put forward by the Board of Peace, and in June reports said it was only prepared to negotiate around conditions, not to accept full surrender of arms; some reporting suggested openness to handing over heavy weapons first, but not personal firearms or total demilitarisation[4][3][7]. For comparison across books, Polymarket shows a binary implied probability, while Betfair and Smarkets typically trade on decimal odds that can be converted back into an implied chance; on a market priced at 0%, those exchange prices would usually imply a very long-shot yes outcome, with the exact tradable probability depending on the side of the book and fees. KYC reach also differs: regulated exchanges generally have tighter identity checks and jurisdictional restrictions than offshore-style prediction platforms.

The main catalysts are therefore not battlefield developments alone, but whether mediators can extract an explicit written statement from Hamas leadership, whether Israeli withdrawal sequencing changes, and whether any new ceasefire or governance framework ties reconstruction to weapons surrender. AP reported in July that Hamas was “considering” a disarmament initiative as part of Trump’s Gaza plan, but that is far short of the official announcement this market requires[7]. Traders should watch for mediator readouts from Egypt, Qatar or the U.S., any formal Board of Peace timetable, and any Hamas statement distinguishing partial handover from full disarmament, because the market’s wording allows staged or partial disarmament only if it is publicly committed by credible Hamas leadership.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.