US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 14 June 2026, the United States and Iran announced a draft diplomatic framework committing to a 60-day negotiation window aimed at a final deal on Iran’s nuclear programme, oil sanctions, and the release of frozen assets. The agreement includes a temporary waiver of oil sanctions, a $25 billion cash transfer, and Iran’s pledge not to manufacture nuclear weapons, while the US will refrain from new sanctions until a final accord is reached. Despite this progress, the current crowd-implied probability of a qualifying written instrument being signed by August 2026 remains at 0%, reflecting deep scepticism about the deal’s durability.

Historically, similar US-Iran negotiations, such as the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, collapsed under political shifts and enforcement disputes, with Iran often delaying implementation to extract concessions. Analysts note that Iran has a track record of dragging out talks on highly enriched uranium stockpiles while pocketing incremental sanctions relief, as seen in recent leaks from the Atlantic Council. Platforms diverge sharply here: Polymarket displays decimal odds with minimal KYC and low fees, whereas Kalshi and Betfair require identity verification, charge higher fees, and resolve trades using implied probability rather than raw odds, affecting how traders interpret the 0% signal.

Traders should monitor scheduled announcements from the US State Department and Iranian Foreign Ministry, particularly any updates on the 60-day negotiation phase and the status of the Strait of Hormuz reopening. Recent reporting from Reuters confirms that the draft deal includes a waiver for oil sanctions and asset release, but the full text remains unofficial, and key issues like ballistic missiles and regional proxies are unaddressed. A failure to sign a formal instrument by the settlement deadline will resolve the market to “No,” regardless of interim progress.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.