US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key issue is whether Washington and Tehran produce an **official, durable diplomatic instrument** that commits Iran to permit or restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz before the settlement cut-off. The 61% crowd-implied **Yes** price looks consistent with a market that already assumes some form of follow-on deal after June’s memorandum of understanding, but not full certainty on wording, timing, or whether the final text will meet the market’s definition of a qualifying agreement.[12][15][18]

Comparable cases suggest traders should not treat every ceasefire update as sufficient. Reuters reported in June that the initial pact was a **preliminary agreement** with details still being negotiated, while later reporting described the parties as moving into technical talks rather than announcing a final settlement.[15][5] That matters because platforms resolve differently: Polymarket and Kalshi typically trade in implied probability terms, while Betfair and Smarkets quote decimal odds, which can make the same 61% market look more or less attractive once fees are included; Betfair and Smarkets also tend to have different commission structures, and KYC availability can limit who can access the book. On this kind of binary diplomatic event, those frictions can widen the practical gap between headline price and take-home value.

For catalysts, watch for any formal White House, State Department, Iranian foreign ministry, or Omani mediation announcement, plus whether the text explicitly sets obligations on passage, tolls, escorts, sanctions relief, or maritime monitoring. Al Jazeera reported on 2 August that Iran said talks with Oman were in their “final stages”, while also insisting the Strait would not return to its pre-war status, which keeps open the possibility of a partial arrangement that may or may not satisfy the market’s threshold.[9] Treasury sanctions waivers tied to Iranian oil exports are another clue: recent waivers through 21 August show how implementation language can move ahead of, or alongside, a broader political announcement.[1][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by 2026? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.