How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz is currently seeing a recovery in shipping traffic following an interim agreement between the US and Iran, with vessels resuming movements through the choke point as oil prices ease [4][5]. This week, from 6 to 12 July 2026, the market hinges on whether the finalized IMF Portwatch transit calls for container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships will meet the threshold implied by the 85% YES probability.

Historical data from April 2026 shows inbound and outbound voyages fluctuating between three and six per day, while early June 2026 recorded zero outbound commercial vessels before traffic resumed [1][2]. The divergence in reading this probability lies in platform mechanics: Polymarket users see decimal odds reflecting the 85% implied probability, whereas Kalshi and Betfair traders encounter fractional or decimal pricing with distinct fee structures and KYC thresholds that alter effective payout calculations on this specific oil-volume event.

Traders must monitor the daily finalisation schedule of IMF Portwatch data, where a date is confirmed only once the following day’s point becomes available, and watch for any announcements regarding the US-Iran interim deal’s implementation [3][9]. Recent reporting confirms traffic remains active but recovery is cautious, meaning a sudden halt or surge in tanker movements could shift the settlement outcome before the 12 July window closes [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.