Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Ships are barely passing through the Strait of Hormuz as commercial traffic has collapsed by more than 95% since the Iran war began, with daily crossings dropping from 75–125 to single digits by early March 2026[1][7]. Iran has reportedly approved a limited controlled route for GCC and European vessels but charges roughly $2 million per ship, while oil tanker flows remain near standstill[1]. This severe disruption frames the current 8% YES probability: historical data shows transits have plummeted to 15 vessels over three days in mid-war, and GPS jamming plus AIS spoofing further obscure accurate counts[2][5].

Traders should monitor Iran’s fee enforcement, White House policy shifts, and any announcements on route expansions, as these directly impact whether transit numbers rebound to the listed threshold[2]. Recent reports confirm commercial traffic remains limited with most detected transits by Iran-linked or high-risk ships using spoofed signals to avoid targeting[1]. On Polymarket versus Kalshi or Betfair, divergence appears in decimal odds versus implied probability presentation, fee structures (often 0–2% on Polymarket vs higher on regulated books), and KYC reach, with Kalshi requiring full identity verification while Polymarket allows pseudonymous access—critical for traders assessing liquidity and compliance on this specific Hormuz market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.