GPT-6 released by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

OpenAI would need to make a model explicitly called **GPT-6** publicly available before 31 December 2025 for this market to pay out yes. That bar is higher than a private beta or invite-only testing: the contract definition requires a public launch, including open beta or open waitlist access, and the title must be clearly announced by OpenAI as available to the general public.

The current 0% crowd price reflects the fact that no public GPT-6 release had been announced by OpenAI in the sources here, while a model expected to ship as GPT-6 instead appeared on 23 April 2026 as **GPT-5.5** (“Spud”). In other words, the “next big model” did arrive, but under a different name and after the market’s 2025 deadline, which is why a yes outcome on this exact contract would require an earlier and more explicit launch than the public record has shown. Comparable GPT-release trackers also push the likely GPT-6 window into late 2026 or 2027, which is consistent with why traders have marked the 2025 settlement as effectively dead.[1][4][16][18]

For platform comparison, the same event tends to be priced differently on Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets because each book presents the market in a different way: Polymarket usually shows *implied probability*, while exchange-style books such as Betfair and Smarkets quote *decimal odds* that embed their commission. That matters here because a 0% yes price on one venue may still correspond to a very small but non-zero lay price elsewhere once fees, market maker spreads and KYC reach are taken into account; the practical read is that access, fee drag and how each venue defines “release” are more important than the headline number for a market with a hard date and a narrow naming شرط.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We read GPT-6 released by…? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.