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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

Gavin Newsom 18% Jon Ossoff 16% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 15% Kamala Harris 8% Volume: $1254.0M Liquidity: $78.4M Closes: 7 Nov 2028
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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 18% 82% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 18% 82% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Gavin Newsom18%
Jon Ossoff16%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15%
Kamala Harris8%
Pete Buttigieg5%
Josh Shapiro5%
Mark Kelly3%
Andy Beshear2%
Rahm Emanuel2%
Jon Stewart2%
Ro Khanna2%
James Talarico2%
Wes Moore1%
Gretchen Whitmer1%
Mark Cuban1%
J.B. Pritzker1%
Raphael Warnock1%
Cory Booker1%
Michelle Obama1%
Bernie Sanders1%
Hunter Biden1%
Chelsea Clinton1%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
Stephen A. Smith0%
Tim Walz0%
Gina Raimondo0%
Zohran Mamdani0%
Roy Cooper0%
John Fetterman0%
Jared Polis0%
Barack Obama0%
Hillary Clinton0%
Liz Cheney0%
Phil Murphy0%
LeBron James0%
George Clooney0%
MrBeast0%
Oprah Winfrey0%
Andrew Yang0%
Beto O’Rourke0%
Kim Kardashian0%
Chris Murphy0%
Jasmine Crockett0%
Ruben Gallego0%
Graham Platner0%
Abigail Spanberger0%
Hakeem Jeffries0%
Elissa Slotkin0%
Adam Schiff0%
Josh Stein0%
Alex Padilla0%
Person V0%
Person W0%
Person X0%
Person Y0%
Person Z0%
Person AA0%
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Person AD0%
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Person AS0%
Person AT0%
Person AU0%
Person AV0%
Person AW0%
Person AX0%
Person AY0%
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Person CR0%
Person CS0%
Other0%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 18% YES probability for Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution …

Methodology

This page compares Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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