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Presidential Election Winner 2028

Which venue prices "Presidential Election Winner 2028" best? Direct comparison of Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets.

JD Vance 21% Marco Rubio 12% Gavin Newsom 10% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 10% Volume: $680.0M Liquidity: $60.5M Closes: 7 Nov 2028
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Presidential Election Winner 2028

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 21% 79% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 21% 79% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
JD Vance21%
Marco Rubio12%
Gavin Newsom10%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez10%
Jon Ossoff10%
Kamala Harris5%
Josh Shapiro3%
Pete Buttigieg2%
Donald Trump2%
Ron DeSantis2%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson2%
Tucker Carlson2%
Thomas Massie2%
Wes Moore1%
Gretchen Whitmer1%
Andy Beshear1%
Glenn Youngkin1%
Donald Trump Jr.1%
Nikki Haley1%
Greg Abbott1%
Elon Musk1%
Ivanka Trump1%
Michelle Obama1%
Jamie Dimon1%
Ro Khanna1%
Stephen Smith0%
JB Pritzker0%
Tulsi Gabbard0%
Tim Walz0%
Vivek Ramaswamy0%
LeBron James0%
Kim Kardashian0%
Zohran Mamdani0%
James Talarico0%
Eric Trump0%
Pete Hegseth0%
Jalen Brunson0%
Abigail Spanberger0%
Hakeem Jeffries0%
Elissa Slotkin0%
Adam Schiff0%
Josh Stein0%
Alex Padilla0%
Candace Owens0%
Tim Scott0%
Mike Johnson0%
Doug Burgum0%
Tom Cotton0%
John N. Kennedy0%
Rick Scott0%
Person AD0%
Person AE0%
Person AF0%
Person AG0%
Person AH0%
Person AI0%
Person AJ0%
Person AK0%
Person AL0%
Person AM0%
Person AN0%
Person AO0%
Person AP0%
Person AQ0%
Person AR0%
Person AS0%
Person AT0%
Person AU0%
Person AV0%
Person AW0%
Person AX0%
Person AY0%
Person AZ0%
Person BA0%
Person BB0%
Person BC0%
Person BD0%
Person BE0%
Person BF0%
Person BG0%
Person BH0%
Person BI0%
Person BJ0%
Person BK0%
Person BL0%
Person BM0%
Person BN0%
Person BO0%
Person BP0%
Person BQ0%
Person BR0%
Person BS0%
Person BT0%
Person BU0%
Person BV0%
Person BW0%
Person BX0%
Person BY0%
Person BZ0%
Person CA0%
Person CB0%
Person CC0%
Person CD0%
Person CE0%
Person CF0%
Person CG0%
Person CH0%
Person CI0%
Person CJ0%
Person CK0%
Person CL0%
Person CM0%
Person CN0%
Person CO0%
Person CP0%
Person CQ0%
Person CR0%
Person CS0%
Person CT0%
Person CU0%
Person CV0%
Person CW0%
Person CX0%
Person CY0%
Person CZ0%
Person DA0%
Person DB0%
Other0%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 21% YES probability for Presidential Election Winner 2028. The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolv…

Methodology

This page compares Presidential Election Winner 2028 specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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