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Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

Cross-platform snapshot for "Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner": deepest order book, lowest fee, geo-coverage at a glance.

Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia 69% List A 50% List B 50% List C 50% Volume: $1.4M Liquidity: $695K Closes: 25 Oct 2026
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Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
69% 31% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
69% 31% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
— — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
— — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
— — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia69%
List A50%
List B50%
List C50%
List D50%
List E50%
List F50%
List G50%
List H50%
List I50%
List J50%
List K50%
List L50%
List M50%
List N50%
List O50%
List P50%
List Q50%
List R50%
List S50%
List T50%
List U50%
List V50%
List W50%
List X50%
List Y50%
List Z50%
Other50%
Student List – Students Win31%
Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!0%
Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP)0%
Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor0%
Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification0%
Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić0%
Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović0%
European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš0%
SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak0%

Market context

The Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner prediction market currently prices this outcome at 69% YES. Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve to the electoral list that wins the great…

Methodology

This page compares Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
and

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