Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Platform comparison

Market context

Israel’s next prime minister market turns on the post-election coalition arithmetic, not just vote share, because the contract only resolves when an individual is officially appointed and sworn in after the election, with any caretaker government excluded. On Polymarket, this is shown as a simple **implied probability**; Kalshi uses its own contract format and fee structure, while Betfair and Smarkets typically present **decimal odds**, so the same political view can look different once exchange commission, spread, and KYC access are factored in. The current crowd price around 34% for the leading “yes” outcome is consistent with a contest still centred on whether Benjamin Netanyahu can assemble another governing majority or whether an alternative bloc can coalesce. Reuters reported in June that former military chief Gadi Eisenkot was surging in polls and could oust Netanyahu, while NPR also described him as a leading contender and strongest challenger.[9][2]

The historical frame is coalition fragility: Israeli elections often produce fragmented Knessets, so the decisive issue is usually who can secure a working majority and then survive the investiture process. That makes markets on this race especially sensitive to late alliance-making, because even a strong polling lead can fail if smaller parties refuse to join a bloc. Recent market snapshots have leaned towards Eisenkot ahead of Netanyahu, but the spread between platforms can differ because exchange books quote prices as odds, not probabilities, and users face different fees and eligibility rules depending on whether they can access Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair, or Smarkets.[3][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We read Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.