SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13

Platform comparison

Market context

SpaceX is attempting its thirteenth integrated flight test of the Starship vehicle, a suborbital hop from Starbase, Texas, carrying 20 Starlink V3 satellites. The launch window opened on 16 July at 22:45 UTC, but the attempt was aborted seconds before liftoff after telemetry showed at least four Raptor engines failed to ignite during startup, prompting an immediate engine swap on the Super Heavy booster [4][5].

Historically, Starship test flights have seen frequent last-second aborts followed by rapid reattempts; Flight 12 launched just days after a static-fire delay, while Flight 11 succeeded after a two-week engine-replacement pause [3][7]. The current 0% YES probability on Polymarket reflects the aborted attempt and the need for hardware fixes, whereas Kalshi’s decimal-odds format would express this as 0.00, and Betfair’s fee-free model might show slightly tighter spreads due to lower friction. Polymarket’s 2% fee and minimal KYC contrast with Kalshi’s stricter US registration and Smarkets’ 0–2% tiered charges, creating divergent liquidity profiles for this binary event.

Traders should monitor SpaceX’s official update channel for the confirmed relaunch date, likely early next week after the two-engine replacement [5]. Key dependencies include FAA clearance (already granted for the original window) [9], the outcome of the static fire for Booster 20 post-repair, and any weather constraints at Pad 2. A successful static fire with all 33 engines igniting would be the primary catalyst for a probability spike, while further engine anomalies could delay the test into late July.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.