Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Gustavo Heide | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Gustavo Heide Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Gustavo Heide Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Gustavo Heide Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Gustavo Heide Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Gustavo Heide Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Gustavo Heide Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Gustavo Heide Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Gustavo Heide Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Gustavo Heide Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Gustavo Heide Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Gustavo Heide Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Gustavo Heide Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Gustavo Heide Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to cincinnati open, qualification: luca van assche vs gustavo heide. This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Van Assche and Gustavo Heide in the Cincinnati Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
This page compares Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Gustavo Heide specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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