Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Thomas Faurel vs Miguel Damas Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Thomas Faurel vs Miguel Damas Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Thomas Faurel vs Miguel Damas Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Thomas Faurel vs Miguel Damas Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Thomas Faurel vs Miguel Damas Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Thomas Faurel vs Miguel Damas Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Thomas Faurel vs Miguel Damas Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Thomas Faurel vs Miguel Damas Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Thomas Faurel vs Miguel Damas Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Thomas Faurel vs Miguel Damas | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Thomas Faurel vs Miguel Damas Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Thomas Faurel vs Miguel Damas Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Thomas Faurel vs Miguel Damas Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Thomas Faurel vs Miguel Damas Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of swedish open, qualification: thomas faurel vs miguel damas. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Thomas Faurel and Miguel Damas in the Swedish Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 7:30AM ET. This market …
Methodology
This page compares Swedish Open, Qualification: Thomas Faurel vs Miguel Damas specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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