Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Columbus: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Andrew Fenty Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Columbus: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Andrew Fenty Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Columbus: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Andrew Fenty Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Columbus: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Andrew Fenty Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Columbus: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Andrew Fenty Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 1% |
| Columbus: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Andrew Fenty Match O/U 22.5 | 1% |
| Columbus: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Andrew Fenty | 0% |
| Columbus: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Andrew Fenty Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Columbus: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Andrew Fenty Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Columbus: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Andrew Fenty Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Columbus: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Andrew Fenty Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Columbus: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Andrew Fenty Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Columbus: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Andrew Fenty Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Columbus: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Andrew Fenty Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Columbus: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Andrew Fenty Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Columbus: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Andrew Fenty Game Spread +/-3.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, columbus: igor ribeiro marcondes vs andrew fenty stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Igor Ribeiro Marcondes and Andrew Fenty in the Columbus, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will…
Methodology
We read Columbus: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Andrew Fenty from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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