Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Los Cabos Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Dalibor Svrcina | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Los Cabos Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Dalibor Svrcina Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Los Cabos Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Dalibor Svrcina Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Los Cabos Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Dalibor Svrcina Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Los Cabos Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Dalibor Svrcina Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Los Cabos Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Dalibor Svrcina Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Los Cabos Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Dalibor Svrcina Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Los Cabos Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Dalibor Svrcina Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Los Cabos Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Dalibor Svrcina Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Los Cabos Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Dalibor Svrcina Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Los Cabos Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Dalibor Svrcina Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Los Cabos Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Dalibor Svrcina Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Los Cabos Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Dalibor Svrcina Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Los Cabos Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Dalibor Svrcina Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to los cabos open: denis shapovalov vs dalibor svrcina. This market refers to the tennis match between Denis Shapovalov and Dalibor Svrcina in the Los Cabos Open, originally scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 10:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Denis Sha…
Methodology
This page compares Los Cabos Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Dalibor Svrcina specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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