Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Jurij Rodionov Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Jurij Rodionov Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Jurij Rodionov Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Jurij Rodionov Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Jurij Rodionov Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Jurij Rodionov Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Jurij Rodionov Game Spread +/-2.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Jurij Rodionov | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Jurij Rodionov Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Jurij Rodionov Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Jurij Rodionov Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Jurij Rodionov Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Jurij Rodionov Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Jurij Rodionov Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Jurij Rodionov Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Jurij Rodionov Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to us open, qualification atp: frederico ferreira silva vs jurij rodionov. This market refers to the tennis match between Frederico Ferreira Silva and Jurij Rodionov in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will …
Methodology
This page compares US Open, Qualification ATP: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Jurij Rodionov specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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