Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
64% | 36% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
64% | 36% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Trevor Svajda vs Jakub Mensik Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 64% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Trevor Svajda vs Jakub Mensik Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 60% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Trevor Svajda vs Jakub Mensik Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Trevor Svajda vs Jakub Mensik Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Trevor Svajda vs Jakub Mensik Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Trevor Svajda vs Jakub Mensik Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Trevor Svajda vs Jakub Mensik Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Trevor Svajda vs Jakub Mensik Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Trevor Svajda vs Jakub Mensik Set 2 Winner | 36% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Trevor Svajda vs Jakub Mensik | 12% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Trevor Svajda vs Jakub Mensik Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 4% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Trevor Svajda vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Trevor Svajda vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Trevor Svajda vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Trevor Svajda vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 64% probability to mubadala citi dc open: trevor svajda vs jakub mensik. This market refers to the tennis match between Trevor Svajda and Jakub Mensik in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for July 27, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Trevor S…
Methodology
This page compares Mubadala Citi DC Open: Trevor Svajda vs Jakub Mensik specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Trade Mubadala Citi DC Open: Trevor Svajda vs Jakub Mensik on Robinhood Prediction Markets
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →