Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| Michigan 2H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1H Moneyline | 100% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| Spread -1.5 | 95% |
| Spread -4.5 | 90% |
| Spread -3.5 | 88% |
| Spread -5.5 | 80% |
| Spread -6.5 | 80% |
| Spread -7.5 | 77% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 53% |
| Michigan 2H O/U 14.5 | 53% |
| Michigan 2H O/U 16.5 | 53% |
| Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 51% |
| Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 51% |
| Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| O/U 37.5 | 50% |
| O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| O/U 67.5 | 50% |
| O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| O/U 71.5 | 50% |
| O/U 73.5 | 50% |
| O/U 75.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Michigan O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Michigan O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Michigan O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Michigan O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Penn State vs. Michigan: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Penn State vs. Michigan: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Penn State vs. Michigan: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michigan 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michigan 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Penn State vs. Michigan: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Penn State vs. Michigan: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Penn State vs. Michigan: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michigan O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 20.5 | 46% |
| Michigan O/U 23.5 | 46% |
| Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| Spread -14.5 | 20% |
| O/U 57.5 | 20% |
| Penn State O/U 23.5 | 20% |
| Spread -16.5 | 17% |
| Spread -17.5 | 17% |
| O/U 39.5 | 14% |
| Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Spread -3.5 | 6% |
| O/U 43.5 | 6% |
| O/U 45.5 | 3% |
| Penn State vs. Michigan | 2% |
| Spread -6.5 | 2% |
| Spread -5.5 | 2% |
| Spread -2.5 | 2% |
| Spread -1.5 | 2% |
| O/U 47.5 | 2% |
| O/U 51.5 | 2% |
| O/U 63.5 | 2% |
| Spread -7.5 | 1% |
| Spread -4.5 | 1% |
| Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Penn State 1H O/U 11.5 | 0% |
| Penn State 1H O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Penn State 1H O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| Michigan 1H O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| Michigan 1H O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Michigan 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to penn state vs. michigan. In the upcoming college football game between Penn State and Michigan, scheduled for October 17 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Penn State" if Penn State win the game. This market will reso…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $336K.
Methodology
This page compares Penn State vs. Michigan specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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