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Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 49% Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Astralis (+3.5) 49% Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 48% Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 47% Volume: $74K Liquidity: $355K Closes: 1 Aug 2026
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Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
49% 51% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
49% 51% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.549%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Astralis (+3.5)49%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.548%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.547%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Astralis (+3.5)46%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)45%
O/U 2.5 Games43%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Astralis (+3.5)43%
Map 1 Winner37%
Map 2 Winner31%
Match Winner28%

Market context

Market consensus: 49% chance of counter-strike: astralis vs mouz (bo3) - blast bounty playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Semifinal 2 match between Astralis and MOUZ in the BLAST Bounty Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 1 at 9:30AM ET. This market will …

Methodology

This page compares Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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