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Counter-Strike: NIP vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "Counter-Strike: NIP vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

Map 1 Winner 83% Match Winner 71% Map 2 Winner 59% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 50% Volume: $224K Liquidity: $180K Closes: 17 Jul 2026
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Counter-Strike: NIP vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
83% 17% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
83% 17% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Winner83%
Match Winner71%
Map 2 Winner59%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs NIP (+1.5)50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Heroic (-3.5) vs NIP (+3.5)50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.550%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NIP (-3.5) vs Heroic (+3.5)50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NIP (-6.5) vs Heroic (+6.5)50%
O/U 2.5 Games47%
Map Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)45%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Heroic (-6.5) vs NIP (+6.5)27%

Market context

Market consensus: 83% chance of counter-strike: nip vs heroic (bo3) - stake ranked episode 3 playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper Bracket Final match between NIP and Heroic in the Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 17 at 11:00AM ET. Th…

Methodology

This page compares Counter-Strike: NIP vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
and

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