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Counter-Strike: paiN vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs

Which venue prices "Counter-Strike: paiN vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs" best? Direct comparison of Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets.

Map 1 Winner 100% O/U 2.5 Games 100% Map 1 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs Phantom (+3.5) 100% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 100% Volume: $276K Liquidity: $518K Closes: 15 Jul 2026
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Counter-Strike: paiN vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Winner100%
O/U 2.5 Games100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs Phantom (+3.5)100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Phantom (-3.5) vs paiN (+3.5)91%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Phantom (-6.5) vs paiN (+6.5)91%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs Phantom (+3.5)50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-6.5) vs Phantom (+6.5)50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.550%
Match Winner49%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-6.5) vs Phantom (+6.5)10%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.510%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-9.5) vs Phantom (+9.5)10%
Map 2 Winner0%
Map Handicap: paiN (-1.5) vs Phantom (+1.5)0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs Phantom (+3.5)0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-6.5) vs Phantom (+6.5)0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.50%

Market context

Counter-Strike: paiN vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs — current market-implied probability: 100%. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper Bracket Quarterfinals 1 match between paiN and Phantom in the Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 15 at 1:30PM ET. This market…

Methodology

This page compares Counter-Strike: paiN vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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