Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 97% |
| FC Groningen O/U 0.5 | 91% |
| O/U 1.5 | 86% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 85% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 78% |
| FC Groningen 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 73% |
| FC Groningen O/U 1.5 | 67% |
| O/U 2.5 | 66% |
| Fortuna Sittard O/U 0.5 | 66% |
| FC Groningen 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 64% |
| Both Teams to Score | 60% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| Fortuna Sittard 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| FC Groningen (-1.5) | 44% |
| O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| FC Groningen O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| Fortuna Sittard 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| FC Groningen 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 31% |
| Fortuna Sittard O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| FC Groningen 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 24% |
| FC Groningen (-2.5) | 23% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| Fortuna Sittard 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 14% |
| O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Fortuna Sittard O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Fortuna Sittard 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 9% |
| Fortuna Sittard (-1.5) | 6% |
| Fortuna Sittard (-2.5) | 2% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 97% probability to fc groningen vs. fortuna sittard - more markets. More markets for the Eredivisie game, scheduled for August 28 at 2:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page compares FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard - More Markets specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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