Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
89% | 11% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
89% | 11% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 66% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 66% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 63% |
| Dailon Livramento: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots | 54% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Dailon Livramento: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| José Manuel López: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| José Manuel López: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| José Manuel López: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| José Manuel López: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jovane Cabral: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jovane Cabral: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Nuno Jóia: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Nuno Jóia: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Vózinha: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Vózinha: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Vózinha: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Dailon Livramento: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Dailon Livramento: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 44% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 40% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots | 38% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 36% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 34% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 34% |
| Jovane Cabral: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 31% |
| Vózinha: 5+ saves | 31% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 29% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 27% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 25% |
| Nuno Jóia: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Dailon Livramento: 4+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 5+ shots | 21% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 21% |
| Jovane Cabral: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Dailon Livramento: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Dailon Livramento: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Nuno Jóia: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| José Manuel López: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Jovane Cabral: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 11% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Dailon Livramento: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals + assists | 11% |
| José Manuel López: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Dailon Livramento: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Jovane Cabral: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Jovane Cabral: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Nuno Jóia: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Nuno Jóia: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Jovane Cabral: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 1+ goals | 5% |
| José Manuel López: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Jovane Cabral: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Dailon Livramento: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Nuno Jóia: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Dailon Livramento: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Nuno Jóia: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jovane Cabral: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Dailon Livramento: 2+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 89% YES probability for Argentina vs. Cabo Verde - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Argentina and Cabo Verde, scheduled for July 3 at 6:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page compares Argentina vs. Cabo Verde - Player Props specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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