Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Yasser Ibrahim: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Haissem Hassan: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 87% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots | 80% |
| Yasser Ibrahim: 1+ shots on target | 77% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots | 75% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots | 66% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 51% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Cristian Romero: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Haissem Hassan: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Hamza Abdelkarim: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Ahmed Fetouh: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Marawan Attia: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Marawan Attia: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Hany: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Hany: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mohanad Lasheen: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Mohanad Lasheen: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ramy Rabia: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ramy Rabia: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Yasser Ibrahim: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Ahmed Fetouh: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marawan Attia: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Hany: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohanad Lasheen: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ramy Rabia: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Mostafa Zico: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Mostafa Zico: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 48% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ assists | 20% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ shots | 19% |
| Omar Marmoush: 5+ shots | 18% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Hamza Abdelkarim: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots | 10% |
| Mohamed Salah: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Nahuel Molina: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Haissem Hassan: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Haissem Hassan: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ahmed Fetouh: 1+ shots | 1% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ shots | 1% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 1% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 5+ shots | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Argentina vs. Egypt - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Argentina and Egypt, scheduled for July 7 at 12:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page compares Argentina vs. Egypt - Player Props specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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