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Belgium vs. Senegal - Player Props

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "Belgium vs. Senegal - Player Props" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ shots 100% Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ shots 100% Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ shots 100% Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots 100% Volume: $347K Liquidity: $202K Closes: 1 Jul 2026
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Belgium vs. Senegal - Player Props

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ shots100%
Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ shots100%
Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ shots100%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots100%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots100%
Sadio Mané: 1+ shots100%
Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots95%
Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots92%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots91%
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots77%
Jeremy Doku: 2+ shots75%
Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots70%
Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots70%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots70%
Ismaïla Sarr: 4+ shots67%
Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots65%
Jeremy Doku: 3+ shots63%
Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ shots63%
Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots62%
Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots59%
Ismaïla Sarr: 5+ shots55%
Jeremy Doku: 4+ shots55%
Jeremy Doku: 5+ shots55%
Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots54%
Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots54%
Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots54%
Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots53%
Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ shots53%
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals + assists53%
Nicolas Jackson: 3+ shots52%
Nicolas Jackson: 4+ shots52%
Sadio Mané: 3+ shots52%
Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves51%
Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots51%
Sadio Mané: 2+ shots51%
Sadio Mané: 4+ shots51%
Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ shots51%
Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ shots51%
Sadio Mané: 1+ shots on target51%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists51%
Sadio Mané: 1+ goals + assists51%
Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves50%
Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves50%
Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves50%
Edouard Mendy: 3+ saves50%
Edouard Mendy: 4+ saves50%
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots50%
Dodi Lukebakio: 5+ shots50%
Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ shots50%
Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ shots50%
Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ shots50%
Ibrahim Mbaye: 4+ shots50%
Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ shots50%
Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ shots50%
Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 4+ shots50%
Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 5+ shots50%
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ shots50%
Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots50%
Romelu Lukaku: 5+ shots50%
Chérif Ndiaye: 4+ shots50%
Chérif Ndiaye: 5+ shots50%
Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ shots on target50%
Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ shots on target50%
Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ shots on target50%
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ shots on target50%
Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ shots on target50%
Jeremy Doku: 2+ shots on target50%
Jeremy Doku: 3+ shots on target50%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target50%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target50%
Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target50%
Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target50%
Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ shots on target50%
Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ shots on target50%
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ shots on target50%
Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots on target50%
Nicolas Jackson: 3+ shots on target50%
Nicolas Jackson: 4+ shots on target50%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots on target50%
Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots on target50%
Sadio Mané: 3+ shots on target50%
Sadio Mané: 4+ shots on target50%
Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ shots on target50%
Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ shots on target50%
Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ shots on target50%
Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots50%
Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ shots50%
Charles De Ketelaere: 5+ shots50%
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots on target50%
Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots on target50%
Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots on target50%
Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists50%
Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists50%
Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ goals + assists50%
Ismaïla Sarr: 4+ goals + assists50%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists50%
Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists50%
Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists50%
Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists50%
Sadio Mané: 2+ goals + assists50%
Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots on target50%
Bamba Dieng: 3+ shots on target50%
Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 4+ shots on target50%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists50%
Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists50%
Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists50%
Bamba Dieng: 1+ shots on target50%
Bamba Dieng: 2+ shots on target50%
Bamba Dieng: 1+ shots50%
Bamba Dieng: 2+ shots50%
Bamba Dieng: 3+ shots50%
Bamba Dieng: 4+ shots50%
Bamba Dieng: 5+ shots50%
Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots49%
Nicolas Jackson: 5+ shots49%
Sadio Mané: 5+ shots49%
Chérif Ndiaye: 4+ shots on target49%
Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots on target49%
Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots on target49%
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots on target49%
Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ shots on target49%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots on target49%
Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target49%
Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target49%
Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ shots on target49%
Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots on target49%
Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots on target49%
Sadio Mané: 2+ shots on target49%
Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists49%
Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ goals + assists49%
Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists49%
Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists49%
Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists49%
Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists49%
Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists49%
Sadio Mané: 3+ goals + assists49%
Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ shots on target49%
Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists49%
Edouard Mendy: 2+ saves48%
Edouard Mendy: 5+ saves48%
Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists48%
Ibrahim Mbaye: 5+ shots47%
Sadio Mané: 4+ goals + assists47%
Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ shots43%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals25%
Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots25%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists24%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists24%
Sadio Mané: 3+ goals23%
Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ assists23%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists23%
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists21%
Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals18%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals18%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists18%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals17%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists17%
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals16%
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ assists16%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals14%
Sadio Mané: 1+ goals14%
Bamba Dieng: 2+ goals13%
Bamba Dieng: 3+ goals13%
Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ goals13%
Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ goals13%
Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ goals13%
Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals13%
Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ goals13%
Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ goals13%
Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ goals13%
Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists13%
Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists13%
Sadio Mané: 2+ assists13%
Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists13%
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals12%
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists12%
Sadio Mané: 1+ assists12%
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals11%
Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals11%
Nicolas Jackson: 3+ goals11%
Bamba Dieng: 1+ goals10%
Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ goals9%
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals9%
Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists9%
Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ goals6%
Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals5%
Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals5%
Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals5%
Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists5%
Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ goals3%
Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals3%
Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals3%
Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals2%
Nicolas Jackson: 2+ goals2%
Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals2%
Sadio Mané: 2+ goals2%
Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals1%
Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals1%
Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals1%
Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals0%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, belgium vs. senegal - player props stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Belgium and Senegal, scheduled for July 1 at 4:00 PM ET.

Methodology

This page compares Belgium vs. Senegal - Player Props specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
and

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