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Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

Erling Haaland: 1+ shots 96% Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots 95% Erling Haaland: 2+ shots 81% Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots 80% Volume: $207K Liquidity: $1.5M Closes: 5 Jul 2026
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Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
96% 4% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
96% 4% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots96%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots95%
Erling Haaland: 2+ shots81%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots80%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots75%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots69%
Erling Haaland: 3+ shots66%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots63%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots62%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots51%
Alisson: 4+ saves50%
Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target48%
Igor Thiago: 1+ shots on target48%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots on target48%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots on target48%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots on target48%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots on target48%
Raphinha: 1+ shots on target48%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots on target48%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots on target48%
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots on target48%
Alisson: 2+ saves48%
Alisson: 5+ saves48%
Ørjan Nyland: 2+ saves48%
Ørjan Nyland: 3+ saves48%
Ørjan Nyland: 5+ saves48%
Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists48%
Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists48%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals + assists48%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals + assists48%
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assists48%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals45%
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target45%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots43%
Erling Haaland: 4+ shots42%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals41%
Igor Thiago: 1+ shots40%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots on target40%
Raphinha: 1+ goals + assists40%
Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots39%
Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots38%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots36%
Igor Thiago: 2+ shots on target35%
Ørjan Nyland: 4+ saves34%
Raphinha: 2+ shots on target33%
Raphinha: 2+ goals + assists32%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals31%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target31%
Alisson: 3+ saves31%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals + assists31%
Raphinha: 3+ goals + assists30%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists29%
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots28%
Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target28%
Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target28%
Igor Thiago: 3+ shots on target28%
Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots on target28%
Raphinha: 3+ shots on target28%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots on target28%
Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists28%
Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists28%
Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assists28%
Raphinha: 1+ shots27%
Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target27%
Raphinha: 4+ shots on target27%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists27%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists27%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots26%
Igor Thiago: 4+ shots on target26%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists25%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target25%
Igor Thiago: 2+ shots24%
Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists24%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals + assists24%
Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots23%
Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists23%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals + assists23%
Raphinha: 4+ goals + assists23%
Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots22%
Igor Thiago: 4+ shots21%
Raphinha: 2+ shots21%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots on target21%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists21%
Erling Haaland: 5+ shots19%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists19%
Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists19%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals17%
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals14%
Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots14%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots14%
Matheus Cunha: 5+ shots14%
Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target14%
Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target14%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists14%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals13%
Vinícius Júnior: 5+ shots13%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals12%
Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots12%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists12%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists12%
Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target12%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots on target12%
Igor Thiago: 3+ shots11%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists11%
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists11%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals9%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots9%
Raphinha: 1+ goals8%
Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots8%
Raphinha: 3+ shots8%
Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots7%
Igor Thiago: 5+ shots7%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 5+ shots7%
Raphinha: 4+ shots7%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals6%
Raphinha: 1+ assists6%
Raphinha: 5+ shots5%
Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals3%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals3%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals3%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals3%
Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists3%
Raphinha: 2+ assists3%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals2%
Antonio Nusa: 5+ shots2%
Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists2%
Erling Haaland: 2+ assists2%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ assists2%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assists2%
Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals1%
Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals1%
Igor Thiago: 2+ goals1%
Igor Thiago: 3+ goals1%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals1%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals1%
Raphinha: 2+ goals1%
Raphinha: 3+ goals1%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 96% YES probability for Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Brazil and Norway, scheduled for July 5 at 4:00 PM ET.

Methodology

This page compares Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
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