Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 91% |
| Switzerland O/U 0.5 | 79% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 74% |
| O/U 1.5 | 71% |
| Team to Advance | 67% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 66% |
| Algeria O/U 0.5 | 64% |
| Switzerland 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 59% |
| Both Teams to Score | 54% |
| Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| O/U 2.5 | 44% |
| Switzerland O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Algeria 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 34% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | 30% |
| Switzerland 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 29% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 26% |
| Algeria O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Algeria 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Switzerland (-1.5) | 23% |
| O/U 3.5 | 23% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 19% |
| Switzerland O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 17% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Switzerland 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 14% |
| O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Switzerland (-2.5) | 9% |
| Algeria (-1.5) | 8% |
| Algeria O/U 2.5 | 7% |
| Algeria 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 6% |
| O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Switzerland (-3.5) | 3% |
| Algeria (-2.5) | 2% |
| O/U 6.5 | 2% |
| Algeria (-3.5) | 1% |
| Switzerland (-4.5) | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| Algeria (-4.5) | 0% |
| Switzerland (-5.5) | 0% |
| Algeria (-5.5) | 0% |
| O/U 8.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 91% chance of switzerland vs. algeria - more markets. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 2 at 11:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page compares Switzerland vs. Algeria - More Markets specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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