Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
80% | 20% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
80% | 20% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 80% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ shots | 77% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 75% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ shots | 74% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ shots | 56% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ shots | 54% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 53% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Egil Selvik: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Egil Selvik: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Egil Selvik: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 44% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ shots | 42% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ shots | 42% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots | 38% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ shots | 35% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 35% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ shots | 29% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 26% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 21% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 19% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 17% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Amad Diallo: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ shots | 15% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Amad Diallo: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Oumar Diakité: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Evann Guessand: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Egil Selvik: 5+ saves | 7% |
| Antonio Nusa: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Elye Wahi: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Jens Hauge: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Evann Guessand: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Oumar Diakité: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Jens Hauge: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Evann Guessand: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Oumar Diakité: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jens Hauge: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Oscar Bobb: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Amad Diallo: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, côte d'ivoire vs. norway - player props stands at 80% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Côte d'Ivoire and Norway, scheduled for June 30 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page compares Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway - Player Props specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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