Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
87% | 13% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
87% | 13% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Corners: O/U 6.5 | 87% |
| Sweden Corners: O/U 1.5 | 79% |
| Total Corners: O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| France Corners: O/U 4.5 | 76% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 3.5 | 75% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 3.5 | 70% |
| Total Corners: O/U 8.5 | 69% |
| Sweden Corners: O/U 2.5 | 67% |
| Team to Take First Corner | 65% |
| France Corners: O/U 5.5 | 63% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 4.5 | 57% |
| Total Corners: O/U 9.5 | 56% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| Total Corners: Odd or Even | 50% |
| Sweden Corners: O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| France Corners: O/U 6.5 | 47% |
| Total Corners: O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 5.5 | 41% |
| France Corners: O/U 7.5 | 39% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| Total Corners: O/U 11.5 | 35% |
| Total Corners: O/U 12.5 | 27% |
Market context
Market consensus: 87% chance of france vs. sweden - total corners. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Total corners markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Sweden, scheduled for June 30 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page compares France vs. Sweden - Total Corners specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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