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Mexico vs. England - Player Props

Which venue prices "Mexico vs. England - Player Props" best? Direct comparison of Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets.

Harry Kane: 1+ shots 93% Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots 90% Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots 86% Harry Kane: 2+ shots 83% Volume: $484K Liquidity: $2.0M Closes: 6 Jul 2026
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Mexico vs. England - Player Props

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
93% 7% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
93% 7% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Harry Kane: 1+ shots93%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots90%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots86%
Harry Kane: 2+ shots83%
Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target72%
Harry Kane: 3+ shots71%
Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots63%
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots63%
Harry Kane: 4+ shots56%
Armando González: 1+ shots on target50%
Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots on target50%
Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots on target50%
Raúl Rangel: 3+ saves49%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots48%
Armando González: 2+ shots on target48%
Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target48%
Ivan Toney: 1+ shots on target48%
Ivan Toney: 2+ shots on target48%
Ivan Toney: 3+ shots on target48%
Ivan Toney: 4+ shots on target48%
Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots on target48%
Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots on target48%
Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots on target48%
Raúl Rangel: 2+ saves48%
Raúl Rangel: 4+ saves48%
Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves47%
Raúl Rangel: 5+ saves47%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists40%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals38%
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals + assists37%
Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots35%
Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target35%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots on target35%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots on target35%
Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots34%
Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots33%
Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves33%
Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals + assists33%
Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots32%
Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists32%
Armando González: 1+ shots31%
Julián Quiñones: 4+ shots31%
Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots31%
Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots31%
Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target31%
Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves31%
Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists31%
Ivan Toney: 1+ shots30%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots on target30%
Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals + assists30%
Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots29%
Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots on target28%
Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves28%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists28%
Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals + assists28%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals27%
Harry Kane: 5+ shots27%
Armando González: 2+ shots26%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists26%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals24%
Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots21%
Julián Quiñones: 4+ goals + assists21%
Raúl Jiménez: 4+ goals + assists21%
Raúl Jiménez: 4+ shots20%
Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists20%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals + assists20%
Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots19%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals + assists19%
Ivan Toney: 2+ shots16%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals15%
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots on target15%
Santiago Giménez: 1+ goals14%
Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots on target14%
Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots on target14%
Santiago Giménez: 4+ shots13%
Armando González: 1+ goals11%
Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots11%
Raúl Jiménez: 5+ shots11%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ assists11%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists11%
Harry Kane: 1+ assists10%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals9%
Santiago Giménez: 5+ shots9%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ assists9%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists8%
Ollie Watkins: 1+ goals7%
Julián Quiñones: 5+ shots7%
Marcus Rashford: 5+ shots7%
Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots on target7%
Ivan Toney: 1+ goals6%
Armando González: 4+ shots5%
Armando González: 5+ shots5%
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals4%
Armando González: 3+ shots4%
Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots4%
Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists4%
Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals3%
Harry Kane: 2+ assists3%
Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists3%
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ assists3%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals2%
Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals2%
Santiago Giménez: 2+ goals2%
Ivan Toney: 3+ shots2%
Ivan Toney: 5+ shots2%
Ollie Watkins: 5+ shots2%
Julián Quiñones: 2+ assists2%
Armando González: 3+ shots on target2%
Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots on target2%
Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots on target2%
Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots on target2%
Armando González: 2+ goals1%
Armando González: 3+ goals1%
Ivan Toney: 2+ goals1%
Ivan Toney: 3+ goals1%
Ollie Watkins: 2+ goals1%
Ollie Watkins: 3+ goals1%
Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals1%
Santiago Giménez: 3+ goals1%
Ivan Toney: 4+ shots1%
Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots1%
Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals0%
Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals0%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, mexico vs. england - player props stands at 93% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Mexico and England, scheduled for July 5 at 8:00 PM ET.

Methodology

We read Mexico vs. England - Player Props from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
and

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Related Topics

Sports