Norway vs. England - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup quarter-final between Norway and England, set for 5:00 PM ET on 11 July 2026 at Miami Stadium, Florida, is the real-world event driving this market. The fixture resolves strictly on the 90-minute result, excluding extra time and shoot-outs. Historical data shows Norway have won only two of their last 12 matches against England, failing to score in their last four encounters[1]. This poor record frames the current 7% implied probability for an exact score, suggesting books view a specific outcome as a low-probability upset despite Norway’s recent 2-1 victory over Brazil in the Round of 32[7].

Traders must monitor squad announcements and tactical shifts following England’s dramatic 3-2 win over Mexico in the Round of 16, where Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham secured the victory[5]. Norway’s captain Martin Ødegaard will be pivotal in their Viking Row-inspired attack, yet their defensive fragility against top-tier sides remains a key dependency[4]. On platform mechanics, Polymarket displays decimal odds while Kalshi and Betfair often emphasise implied probability, creating divergent entry points for this specific market[2]. Fee structures also vary significantly; Robinhood’s comparison model highlights that Smarkets’ lower commission rates may offer better value for long-tail exact score bets compared to Kalshi’s higher KYC thresholds and fee layers.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Norway vs. England - Exact Score specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.