Senegal vs. Iraq - Halftime Result

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup Group I match between Senegal and Iraq takes place on 26 June 2026 at Toronto Stadium, with the first 45 minutes determining the halftime result. Current market data shows a 0% implied probability for Senegal winning at halftime, reflecting a near-certainty of a draw or Iraq victory in the opening period. This stark pricing diverges sharply across platforms: Polymarket displays decimal odds favouring a draw, while Kalshi and Betfair emphasise implied probability with higher fees for non-KYC users, and Smarkets offers lower commission but stricter identity verification.

Historically, World Cup Group matches involving Senegal have frequently begun with tight, low-scoring halves; in their 2022 opener, Senegal drew 0–0 at halftime against Netherlands. Similarly, Iraq’s recent World Cup qualifiers show a pattern of defensive starts, with 70% of their last ten matches ending in draws at the 45-minute mark. These precedents frame the current 0% Senegal win probability as rational, not anomalous, and align with bookmakers’ consensus that early goals are unlikely.

Traders should monitor pre-match line-up announcements and stoppage-time declarations, as both directly impact the 45-minute window. Recent coverage from FOX Sports notes Senegal’s attacking midfielders are expected to start, yet Iraq’s defensive structure remains intact [2]. Additionally, FIFA’s official match centre confirms the game begins at 19:00 local time, with no scheduled delays [6]. Any late injury news or tactical shifts—particularly regarding Senegal’s forward line—could alter the draw probability, making real-time updates essential for accurate positioning.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Senegal vs. Iraq - Halftime Result specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.