Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Porto: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Enrico Dalla Valle | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Porto: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Enrico Dalla Valle Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Porto: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Enrico Dalla Valle Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Porto: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Enrico Dalla Valle Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Porto: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Enrico Dalla Valle Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Porto: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Enrico Dalla Valle Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Porto: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Enrico Dalla Valle Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Porto: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Enrico Dalla Valle Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Porto: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Enrico Dalla Valle Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Porto: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Enrico Dalla Valle Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Porto: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Enrico Dalla Valle Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Porto: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Enrico Dalla Valle Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Porto: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Enrico Dalla Valle Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Porto: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Enrico Dalla Valle Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Porto: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Enrico Dalla Valle Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Porto: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Enrico Dalla Valle. This market refers to the tennis match between Oriol Roca Batalla and Enrico Dalla Valle in the Porto, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Oriol Roca…
Methodology
We read Porto: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Enrico Dalla Valle from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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